South Sudan on the Brink: Major Party Withdraws from Peace Deal Amid Rising Tensions
South Sudan’s fragile peace process is teetering on the edge of collapse as the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO), a key party in the coalition government, announced its partial withdrawal from the 2018 peace agreement. The decision comes amid escalating tensions between First Vice President Riek Machar, leader of the SPLM-IO, and President Salva Kiir. The two leaders, whose rivalry has plagued South Sudan for years, are once again at odds, raising fears of a return to full-scale conflict.
The immediate trigger for the SPLM-IO’s withdrawal was the arrest of several high-ranking party officials, including the petroleum minister and the deputy head of the army. These arrests followed clashes in Upper Nile state, where the White Army, an ethnic militia, forced government troops to withdraw from the town of Nasir. The government has accused the SPLM-IO of collaborating with the White Army, a claim the party vehemently denies. Oyet Nathaniel Pierino, the SPLM-IO’s deputy chairman, stated that the party would no longer participate in security arrangements tied to the peace deal until the detained officials are released.
The 2018 peace agreement, which ended a brutal five-year civil war, was already under strain due to the deteriorating relationship between Kiir and Machar. The recent clashes in Upper Nile state have further exposed the deep-seated mistrust between the two leaders. Analysts warn that the situation is reminiscent of the events leading up to the 2013 civil war, which erupted after Kiir accused Machar of plotting a coup. The current political climate, marked by arrests and accusations, threatens to unravel the hard-won progress made since the peace deal was signed.
The humanitarian consequences of the escalating tensions are dire. According to the United Nations, the fighting around Nasir has displaced 50,000 people, with 10,000 fleeing to Ethiopia. The displacement adds to the already staggering number of South Sudanese refugees and internally displaced persons, many of whom have yet to recover from the previous conflict. The United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator in South Sudan, Anita Kiki Gbeho, has called for urgent action to address the crisis, warning that the country is on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe.
Compounding the crisis is the proliferation of hate speech and misinformation, which has raised fears that the conflict could take on an ethnic dimension. Nicholas Haysom, the head of the UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan, has expressed concern that the country is “on the brink of relapse into civil war.” The spread of inflammatory rhetoric, particularly on social media, has exacerbated tensions and created a volatile environment. Haysom has called on regional and international actors to intervene before the situation spirals out of control.
The breakdown of the peace process in South Sudan is also being fueled by external factors, particularly the ongoing war in neighboring Sudan. The conflict has disrupted South Sudan’s oil revenues, a critical source of income for the government, and has led to an influx of weapons across the border. Analysts warn that the spillover effects of the Sudan war could further destabilize South Sudan, making it even more difficult to prevent a return to widespread violence. As the situation continues to deteriorate, the international community faces a race against time to prevent another devastating conflict in the world’s youngest nation.
