The Looming Threat of War: Syrian and Sudanese Refugees in Lebanon Grapple with Uncertainty

Beirut, Lebanon, has long been a sanctuary for those fleeing the horrors of war. From the early days of the Syrian civil conflict to the ongoing strife in Sudan, the country has provided refuge to millions. But now, with tensions escalating between Hezbollah and Israel, the sense of safety is rapidly dissipating. For many refugees, the question is no longer about surviving their home country’s conflict but how they will survive if war breaks out in Lebanon.

A Legacy of Displacement

In 2014, a missile from the Syrian regime struck Alaa’s apartment in Aleppo. Miraculously, the then-13-year-old and his family survived and sought refuge in Lebanon. Today, Alaa works as a hairdresser in Beirut. The memories of that day are etched in his mind, and the possibility of facing another war fills him with dread. “A war would affect everyone here: Lebanese and Syrian,” Alaa shared with Al Jazeera, expressing the shared anxiety that cuts across both local and refugee populations in Lebanon.

Lebanon, which has offered a haven for many, now stands on the precipice of becoming another battleground. Refugees like Alaa are caught in a difficult situation. They have escaped war before, but the looming threat raises the question of whether they will have to escape again.

The Shadow of Conflict

The threat of war is not new to Lebanon. The region has seen its fair share of conflicts, and with each skirmish, the fear of a wider conflict looms larger. Tensions have escalated since Israel assassinated senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shakr on July 30 in Beirut’s Dahiya neighborhood. This act, followed by the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, has only added fuel to the fire. While Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement, the region’s instability has only deepened, casting a dark shadow over Lebanon’s future.

The impact of these events is felt deeply among the refugee communities. Syrian and Sudanese nationals, many of whom are acutely aware of Lebanon’s precarious situation, face the reality that they may once again be caught in the crossfire. The most recent Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon, which resulted in civilian casualties, have further heightened fears.

Fleeing Again or Staying Put?

For refugees, the options are bleak. Many Syrians in Lebanon, like Alaa, cannot imagine returning to Syria, where the conflict still rages. The fear of conscription into the Syrian army, the memories of violence, and the ongoing dangers in Syria make it an unthinkable option. “I wouldn’t return to Syria [where there is still conflict] if a big war happened here,” Alaa said, reflecting the sentiment of many Syrians who would rather seek refuge in Lebanon’s mountains than face the horrors of their homeland once more.

Sudanese nationals in Lebanon face a similarly dire situation. Bakhri Yousef, who has been working as a cleaner in Beirut since 2017, worries about the future. His family in Sudan relies on the money he sends home, but if war breaks out in Lebanon, his ability to support them would be jeopardized. For Bakhri, returning to Sudan, despite the ongoing conflict there, might be the only option. “Here in Lebanon, I have nobody to rely on. But in Sudan, I can rely on my family, and they can rely on me,” he said.

A Shared Enemy

Despite the fear and uncertainty, there is a sense of solidarity among the refugees in Lebanon. Mohamad, a Syrian who owns a laundromat in Beirut, believes that in the event of an Israeli invasion, Syrians in Lebanon would be willing to take up arms alongside the Lebanese. The mounting racism against Syrians, which has been a persistent issue, might diminish in the face of a common enemy. “Israel is the enemy of the Lebanese and the enemy of Syrians,” Mohamad stated, underscoring the shared sense of threat that could unite these communities.