Trump vs. Harris: A New Chapter or More of the Same for the Middle East?

The upcoming U.S. election brings another crossroad for Middle Eastern geopolitics, with Israel and Palestine, in particular, closely watching the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. During Trump’s last presidency, his strong support for Israel reshaped long-standing U.S. policies, starting with his recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, which reverberated through the Arab world. Harris, while supportive of Israel, has indicated a more humanitarian approach, emphasizing the need for ceasefires and support for Palestinian civilians. For Israel’s Prime Minister, who once called Trump “the best friend Israel has ever had,” Harris’s stance may feel like a step back.

For the residents of Trump Heights, a community named after the former president, the U.S. election holds even greater significance. Many Israelis favor Trump for his unwavering commitment to Israel, yet the ongoing conflict in Gaza has drawn criticism. Some worry that a Harris administration might pressure Israel more openly, especially given her previous comments calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. Polls show that two-thirds of Israelis prefer Trump, citing his no-compromise approach toward Israel’s adversaries.

However, for Palestinians, both candidates bring mixed prospects. Mustafa Barghouti, a Palestinian political figure, argues that while Democrats are less favorable, Trump’s presidency could be even harsher. Harris’s emphasis on humanitarianism resonates with some Palestinians, but skepticism remains. The hope for a Palestinian state appears to have diminished, leaving many to wonder if either candidate will actively advocate for their sovereignty.

Trump’s approach to Iran was often confrontational, including his decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal. Harris, however, may seek diplomatic avenues, potentially reinstating a more measured approach to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Trump recently advised Israel to “hit the nuclear first” regarding Iran, a hardline stance that may increase tensions. Harris’s approach, political insiders speculate, would focus on coalition-building among regional allies before turning directly to Iran.

For Middle Eastern allies like Saudi Arabia, the choice of president could impact normalization deals with Israel. Trump brokered the historic Abraham Accords, bringing multiple Arab countries into formal relations with Israel. Harris may also support normalization but through diplomacy rather than deal-making. The Saudi royal family, cautious about their ties with Israel, might prefer Harris’s approach, though Trump’s bold moves continue to hold sway.

Both candidates offer distinct foreign policy styles, but Middle Eastern observers remain cautious. Trump’s directness appeals to Israel’s leadership, while Harris’s diplomacy aligns more with the U.S.’s historical policies. This election could either reinforce or reverse recent developments, signaling either deeper alliances or renewed divisions across the Middle East.