War on the Horizon: How Refugees in Lebanon Are Bracing for the Worst

Lebanon, a country that has provided refuge to millions fleeing conflict, is now on the brink of war. For the refugees who have sought sanctuary within its borders, the looming threat of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel brings a renewed sense of fear and uncertainty. As tensions rise, the already fragile lives of Syrian and Sudanese refugees are thrown into further turmoil, forcing them to confront the possibility of surviving yet another war.

The Constant Presence of Fear

Alaa was only 13 years old when a missile from the Syrian regime struck his home in Aleppo. The blast, which miraculously spared his family, prompted their flight to Lebanon in search of safety. Today, Alaa is a hairdresser in Beirut, but the memories of war are never far from his mind. With the potential for conflict in Lebanon growing, he worries about having to endure another round of violence. “A war would affect everyone here: Lebanese and Syrian,” Alaa told Al Jazeera, capturing the pervasive sense of dread that now grips both Lebanese nationals and the refugee population.

The fear of war is not abstract for those who have already lived through it. The scars of their past experiences, both physical and emotional, are a constant reminder of what could happen if Lebanon descends into conflict. For Alaa and others like him, the prospect of surviving yet another war is almost too much to bear.

Escalating Tensions

The region’s tensions escalated dramatically after the assassination of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shakr in Beirut on July 30. The killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran soon followed, further inflaming the situation. While Israel has not officially taken responsibility for these acts, the repercussions have been felt across Lebanon, with a series of Israeli airstrikes targeting southern Lebanon. The resulting civilian casualties, including Syrians and Sudanese nationals, have heightened the sense of urgency among the refugee communities.

For refugees who have already fled one war, the possibility of another is a terrifying prospect. They are acutely aware that they may have fewer options for escape than Lebanese nationals, who can seek refuge in neighboring countries. The fear of being caught in the crossfire, with no means of escape, is ever-present.

The Dilemma of Return

For many Syrian refugees in Lebanon, returning to their home country is not an option, even if Lebanon becomes embroiled in conflict. The ongoing war in Syria, the fear of conscription, and the threat of violence make it an untenable choice. “If Israel invades, I’m telling you that many Syrians in Lebanon would pick up arms and fight against them,” said Mohamad, a laundromat owner in Beirut. His sentiment reflects the desperation and resolve of many Syrians who see no future in returning to their war-torn homeland.

The situation is similarly dire for Sudanese refugees like Bakhri Yousef, who has been working in Lebanon since 2017. Bakhri’s family in Sudan depends on the money he sends home, but if war breaks out in Lebanon, he fears he will no longer be able to support them. For Bakhri, the prospect of returning to Sudan, despite the ongoing conflict there, might be the only option left. “Here in Lebanon, I have nobody to rely on. But in Sudan, I can rely on my family, and they can rely on me,” he said.

The Search for Safety

As the threat of war looms, some refugees are already making plans to escape Lebanon. For many Syrians, the path to safety lies in Europe. Smugglers offer a dangerous route through Syria to Turkey, and from there, to Greece or Cyprus. “So many Syrians that I knew have returned to Syria to try and reach Turkey. They want to reach Europe,” Mohamad explained. But the journey is fraught with danger, and the possibility of being caught or killed along the way is high.

For those who cannot afford the journey or who fear the risks, the options are limited. Sayed Ibrahim Ahmad, who runs the Sudanese club in Beirut, fears being trapped in Lebanon if the conflict escalates. He knows that while Lebanese nationals may have the option to flee to Syria or Jordan, refugees and migrants will have few, if any, ways to escape. “Most of the people that try to go to Europe either are pulled back to Lebanon or drown,” he said, voicing the grim reality that many refugees face.